Using historical data to detect temporal changes in the abundances of intertidal species on Irish shores

By C. Simkanin, A. Power, A. Myers, D. Mcgrath, A. Southward, N. Mieszkowska, R. Leaper, R. O'riordan. Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, 2005

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An historical data set, collected in 1958 by Southward and Crisp, was used as a baseline for detecting change in the abundances of species in the rocky intertidal of Ireland. In 2003, the abundances of each of 27 species was assessed using the same methodologies (ACFOR [which stands for the categories: abundant, common, frequent, occasional and rare] abundance scales) at 63 shores examined in the historical study. Comparison of the ACFOR data over a 45-year period, between the historical survey and re-survey, showed statistically significant changes in the abundances of 12 of the 27 species examined. Two species (one classed as northern and one introduced) increased significantly in abundance while ten species (five classed as northern, one classed as southern and four broadly distributed) decreased in abundance. The possible reasons for the changes in species abundances were assessed not only in the context of anthropogenic effects, such as climate change and commercial exploitation, but also of operator error. The error or differences recorded among operators (i.e. research scientists) when assessing species abundance using ACFOR categories was quantified on four shores. Significant change detected in three of the 12 species fell within the margin of operator error. This effect of operator may have also contributed to the results of no change in the other 15 species between the two census periods. It was not possible to determine the effect of operator on our results, which can increase the occurrence of a false positive (Type 1) or of a false negative (Type 2) outcome.

Subfields: Ecology, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

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Citations in the corpus

Sustainable harvesting of wild seaweed resources (2017, background): “Climate change and distributional shifts in species Throughout the last century, the average global surface seawater temperature (SST) increased by approximately 0.6°C and it is predicted to increase by up to 3.2°C in the next century (Simkanin et al., 2005; IPCC, 2013).”
Climate change and Australian marine life (2007, background): “Shifts in species distributions associated with ocean warming are documented from rocky shores in Europe, the United States and South America (Barry et al. 1995, Sagarin et al. 1999, Zacherl et al. 2003, Mieszkowska et al. 2005, Rivadeneira & Fernandez 2005, Simkanin et al. 2005).”
Ecological hindcasting of biogeographic responses to climate change in the European intertidal zone (2008, background): “…1898; Fauvel, 1923; Fischer-Piette, 1932; Evans, 1954; FischerPiette, 1955; Crisp & Southward, 1958; Southward & Crisp, 1954; Crisp & Fischer-Piette, 1959; Lewis, 1964; Barnes & Barnes, 1966; Glémarec, 1979; Southward et al., 1995, 2005; Simkanin et al., 2005; Mieszkowska et al., 2006).”
The rise of Laminaria ochroleuca in the Western English Channel (UK) and comparisons with its competitor and assemblage dominant Laminaria hyperborea (2015, background): “Alaria esculenta) will decrease in abundance and/or undergo range contractions in the UK and Ireland (Breeman 1990; Hiscock et al. 2004; Vance 2004; Simkanin et al. 2005; Brodie et al. 2009; Birchenough & Bremmer 2010).”