Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems
By Wusheng Yu, Thomas W. Hertel, Paul V. Preckel, J. Eales. GTAP Working Paper, 2003
138 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the underlying functional form for representing consumer demand. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand. We adopt as our benchmark the recently introduced AIDADS demand system and compare it with several alternative demand systems currently in widespread use in CGE models. This comparison is conducted in the context of projections for disaggregated global food demand using a global CGE model. We find that AIDADS represents a substantial improvement, particularly for the rapidly growing developing countries. For these economies, the most widely used demand systems tend to over-predict future food demands, and hence overestimate future production and import requirements for agricultural products.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Gender Studies
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/1b453ca78f35ec422f21e03765b86ef144967693
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In Economics and Econometrics
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Citations in the corpus
- Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand (2017, background): “Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3578893 2002; Yu et al. 2004; Seale and Regmi 2006).”
- Agricultural Growth and Investment Options for Poverty Reduction in Rwanda (2010, unknown): “Rapid demand shifts can be better captured by using an implicit direct additive demand system (Yu et al. 2003) or by applying latent separability (Gohin 2005), but the highly disaggregated demand structure in the model constrains our choice of methods.”
- Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption (2011, background): “Neglecting the dynamics of these elasticities can lead to strong bias in projections of food demand (Yu et al., 2004).”