Mesoscale Predictability of Moist Baroclinic Waves: Convection-Permitting Experiments and Multistage Error Growth Dynamics

By Fuqing Zhang, N. Bei, R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, C. Epifanio. 2007

256 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/16c9421570aff95b8226c262151764ee499759d2

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Citations in the corpus

The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (2018, background): “expanding to affect the synoptic-scale weather pattern (Zhang et al. 2007; Selz and Craig 2015).”
Rossby Wave Packets on the Midlatitude Waveguide—A Review (2018, background): “…example, ECMWF forecast busts over Europe have been associated with forecast errors of upstream RWPs over North America (Rodwell et al. 2013), and Zheng (2016) suggested that large errors over eastern North America in forecasts of the NOAA Global Forecast System are frequently associated with an…”
The growing impact of satellite observations sensitive to humidity, cloud and precipitation (2017, background): “These could be described as errors of predictability, given that convective error growth-scales can saturate well within the 12 h assimilation window of 4D-Var (e.g. Zhang et al., 2007).”
Internal gravity waves from atmospheric jets and fronts (2014, background): “ing our understanding, as they have for the impacts of moisture on the predictability of mesoscale weather [Zhang et al., 2007], but they necessarily involve parameteriza-”
What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather? (2019, methodology): “Much more limited predictability is expected for vertical velocity and instantaneous precipitation rate forecasts (Bei and Zhang 2007, 2014), which possess very different reference energy spectra. c. Sensitivity study using U.S. NGGPS model Although we could only afford to perform one pair of…”
WeatherBench 2: A Benchmark for the Next Generation of Data‐Driven Global Weather Models (2023, background): “Weather forecasting is an inherently uncertain endeavor because of chaotic error growth (Lorenz, 1963; Zhang et al., 2007), implying that even with perfect models and near perfect initial conditions there is a range of possible outcomes.”
Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation for WRF : Formulation and Preliminary Results (2009, background): “The other possible reason is that the weather system is nonlinear in nature (Zhang et al. 2002, 2003, 2007).”
Parameterization of Cloud Microphysics Based on the Prediction of Bulk Ice Particle Properties. Part I: Scheme Description and Idealized Tests (2015, background): “In general, caution should be exercised when comparing results of sensitivity runs for single realizations, especially for 2D, because of rapid perturbation growth and limited inherent predictability at convective scales (e.g., Zhang et al. 2007; Wang et al. 2012).”