Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?

By Sebnem Kalemli‐ozcan. 2002

434 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This paper analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the effects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that if individuals are prudent in the face of uncertainty about child survival, a decline in an exogenous mortality rate reduces precautionary demand for children and increases parental investment in each child. Once mortality is endogenized, population growth becomes a hump-shaped function of income per capita. At low levels of income population growth rises as income per capita rises leading to a Malthusian steady-state equilibrium, whereas at high levels of income population growth declines leading to a sustained growth steady-state equilibrium.

Subfields: Demography, Economics and Econometrics, General Health Professions

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/09be8cd9084fad43de08c98b4fdc709517188917

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Citations in the corpus

Explaining International Fertility Differences (2009, background): “Recall from Equations (14) and (15) that one of the key predictions of a Barro-Becker type model is the tight link between interest rates (or capital output ratios) and total fertility rates (under the assumption of a CobbDouglas production function).”
AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa (2011, positive): “Luke and Munshi (2004) find in a high AIDS prevalence environment married men are no different then single men in the number of non-marital partners. One would expect the number of non-marital partners to fall more for the married men if unprotected sexual activity is an issue or if wives could infl”
The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War, and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe (2013, positive): “In a similar vein, Kalemli-Ozcan (2002) argues that declines in mortality were growth-enhancing.”
Demographic transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility (2008, methodology): “The idea that mortality rates to a large extent determine fertility outcomes has been used in numerous unied growth models such as Kalemli-Ozcan (2002, 2003), Lagerlöf (2003), Weisdorf (2004), Soares (2005), Azarnert (2006), Tamura (2006) and Falcao and Soares (2007). The idea is by no means recent”
Long-Term Determinants of the Demographic Transition, 1870–2000 (2013, positive): “This theory, originally developed by Nerlove (1974) and furthered by Ehrlich and Lui (1991), Kalemli-Ozcan, Ryder, and Weil (2000), Kalemli-Ozcan (2002), and Soares (2005), can be easily extended to the case where parents care not only about surviving children but also about the survival of their…”
How do epidemics induce behavioral changes? (2009, positive): “While the study of Young (2005a) concerning the South-African case has concluded that the epidemic is decreasing fertility, Kalemli-Ozcan (2006) has identi ed the opposite e ect on a panel of African countries over the 1985-2000 period.1 An argument often brought forward is that the sexual transmiss”
The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development (2013, neutral): “…by exogenously calibrating the overtime change of relevant variables (like technology or mortality) to match the empirical time series, see Eckstein, Mira and Wolpin (1999), Kalemli-Ozcan (2002), de la Croix, Lindh and Malmberg (2008), Bar and Leukhina (2010) and Cervellati and Sunde (2013).”