Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race Among Truth Serums
By Stefan T. Trautmann, Gijs van de Kuilen. 2015
147 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Subfields: Demography, Safety Research, Sociology and Political Science
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/08e54da57d6e56fd75f5983bc17a8194b0e9fb1b
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In Demography
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Citations in the corpus
- Social Preferences and Strategic Uncertainty: An Experiment on Markets and Contracts (2010, unknown): “(2) In the second phase (P2), subjects are again matched in pairs for 24 rounds and asked to choose among the same sets of payoff pairs. However, this time options correspond to contracts, as they yield a 2 × 2 effort game induced by Winter’s (2004) technology, which subjects have then to play at a ”
- A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs (2014, unknown): “Trautmann and van de Kuilen (2011) compare the efforts required for different elicitation mechanisms in a table and show that these can be quite substantial.”
- Is No News (Perceived As) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure (2015, unknown): “These guesses were not incentivized, but in a recent paper, Trautmann and Kuilen (2015) show that such “introspective” elicitation can yield accurate beliefs.”
- Designing Information Provision Experiments (2020, background): “Trautmann and van de Kuilen (2014) find that incentives do not improve the accuracy of people’s predictions about the behavior of others in lab games.”