Two Extra Components in the Brier Score Decomposition

By David B. Stephenson, Caio A. S. Coelho, Ian T. Jolliffe. 2008

91 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/07786f21d6fd0636b89b9f04bf7bb9757aedba00

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In Atmospheric Science

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Citations in the corpus

Calibrated Structured Prediction (2015, background): “It is not hard to see that discretized calibration estimates form an upper bound on the calibration error (3) [14] .”
The Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) is More Informative Than Cohen’s Kappa and Brier Score in Binary Classification Assessment (2021, methodology): “Roulston [81], Stephenson and colleagues [82], and Ferro et al. [83] investigated some mathematical properties of the Brier score.”
Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score (2012, background): “(To get a decomposition of a forecast with a continuum of possible values, the relation (13) below needs to be modified, see Stephenson et al (2008).)”
A bias‐corrected decomposition of the Brier score (2012, methodology): “When such grouping is used, Stephenson et al. (2008) show that the Brier score obtained by combining the reliability, resolution and uncertainty terms will typically differ from the value obtained by evaluating the Brier score directly from the ungrouped forecasts.”
Kullback–Leibler Divergence as a Forecast Skill Score with Classic Reliability–Resolution–Uncertainty Decomposition (2010, background): “One of the most commonly used skill scores (Stephenson et al. 2008) is the Brier score (BS) (Brier 1950), which is applicable to probabilistic forecasts of binary events.”
An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast (2015, methodology): “The event considered is solar power forec An assessment of reliability and resolution can be performed calculating the Brier score (BS) components [51,52].”
Combining probability forecasts (2010, background): “It can be made exact by considering two additional components in the decomposition, as proposed by Stephenson et al. (2008).”