Intuitive numbers guide decisions

By Ellen Peters, Paul Slovic, Daniel Västfjäll, C. K. Mertz. Judgment and Decision Making, 2008

117 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Measuring reaction times to number comparisons is thought to reveal a processing stage in elementary numerical cognition linked to internal, imprecise representations of number magnitudes. These intuitive representations of the mental number line have been demonstrated across species and human development but have been little explored in decision making. This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the influence of such evolutionarily ancient, intuitive numbers on human decisions. We demonstrate that individuals with more precise mental-number-line representations are higher in numeracy (number skills) consistent with previous research with children. Individuals with more precise representations (compared to those with less precise representations) also were more likely to choose larger, later amounts over smaller, immediate amounts, particularly with a larger proportional difference between the two monetary outcomes. In addition, they were more likely to choose an option with a larger proportional but smaller absolute difference compared to those with less precise representations. These results are consistent with intuitive number representations underlying: a) perceived differences between numbers, b) the extent to which proportional differences are weighed in decisions, and, ultimately, c) the valuation of decision options. Human decision processes involving numbers important to health and financial matters may be rooted in elementary, biological processes shared with other species.

Subfields: Developmental and Educational Psychology, Education, Statistics and Probability

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/07751fefe68feecd462420124af0426978b691bc

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Developmental and Educational Psychology

1. R. García‐Retamero
2. Paul Slovic
3. Daniel Västfjäll
4. Edward T. Cokely
5. Saima Ghazal

In Education

1. Paul Slovic
2. Daniel Västfjäll

In Statistics and Probability

1. R. García‐Retamero
2. Paul Slovic
3. Daniel Västfjäll
4. Edward T. Cokely
5. Saima Ghazal

Citations in the corpus

• How numeracy influences risk comprehension and medical decision making. (2009, unknown): “Age differences in choice quality between younger and older adults are reduced when decisions are based on affect or bottomline valence (Mikels et al., in press; but see Peters et al., 2008).”
• Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test (2012, background): “That is, in part individual differences in numeracy reflect differences in one’s intuitive number sense and the affective meaning issued by this sense (Peters, in press; Peters et al., 2008; Slovic & Peters, 2006).”
• Affect, Moral Intuition, and Risk (2010, background): “Research in numerical cognition suggest that we have an “intuitive number sense” ( Dehaene, 1997 ) that allows us to represent and manipulate numerical quantities nonsymbolically ( Peters, Slovic, Vastfjall, & Mertz, 2008 ).”