Benefits of increased resolution in the ECMWF ensemble system and comparison with poor‐man's ensembles

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Ensemble forecasting (2008, background): “Each of these resolution increases brought significant improvements in the skill of the probabilistic forecasts [37,38].”
Comparison of Ensemble-MOS Methods Using GFS Reforecasts (2007, methodology): “These biases may be due to model errors, insufficient resolution (Weisman et al. 1997; Mullen and Buizza 2002; Szunyogh and Toth 2002; Buizza et al. 2003 ) or suboptimal parameterizations, suboptimal methods for generating the initial conditions (Barkmeijer et al. 1998, 1999; Hamill et al. 2000, 20”
Medium‐range multimodel ensemble combination and calibration (2009, background): “Buizza et al. (2003) found that a higher resolution single-model ensemble performed better than a low resolution poor mans ensemble, so it would seem that it is possible for a single model ensemble to outperform a multi-model ensemble containing poor models.”