Medium‐range multimodel ensemble combination and calibration

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Verification and Calibration of Neighborhood and Object-Based Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts from a Multimodel Convection-Allowing Ensemble (2012, background): “…Wandishin et al. 2001; Alhamed et al. 2002; Wang and Bishop 2003; Nutter et al. 2004; Wang et al. 2004; Yussouf et al. 2004; Eckel and Mass 2005; Gallus and Bresch 2006; Aligo et al. 2007; Johnson and Swinbank 2009; Palmer et al. 2009; Candille et al. 2010; Berner et al. 2011; Hacker et al. 2011).”
Can multi‐model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts? (2007, result): “These results are consistent with studies of the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) multi-model medium-range ensemble (Park et al., 2008; Johnson and Swinbank, 2008).”
The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (2010, background): “Johnson and Swinbank (2009) investigated the benefit of a three-model ensemble, using ECMWF, NCEP, and UKMO ensembles. Figure 5 shows Brier skill scores for mean sea level pressure and surface (2 m) air temperature, verifying the skill of categorical probabilistic forecasts, with category boundaries”