Predicting above normal wildfire activity in southern Europe as a function of meteorological drought

By L. Gudmundsson, F. Rego, M. Rocha, Sonia I. Seneviratne. 2014

137 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Wildfires are a recurrent feature of ecosystems in southern Europe, regularly causing large ecological and socio-economic damages. For efficient management of this hazard, long lead time forecasts could be valuable tools. Using logistic regression, we show that the probability of above normal summer wildfire activity in the 1985–2010 time period can be forecasted as a function of meteorological drought with significant predictability (p < 0.05 ?> ) several months in advance. The results show that long lead time forecasts of this natural hazard are feasible in southern Europe, which could potentially aid decision-makers in the design of strategies for forest management.

Subfields: Global and Planetary Change, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ffc9d30552a16a3dfca47ebb6862812dc3b1f4d0

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

1. S. Bachmair
2. K. Stahl
3. J. Hannaford
4. Maliko Tanguy

Citations in the corpus

• How well do meteorological indicators represent agricultural and forest drought across Europe? (2018, methodology): “For SPI and SPEI calculation we used the R package ‘SCI’ (Gudmundsson et al 2014).”