Assessment of Point Process Models for Earthquake Forecasting

By Andrew Bray, Frederic Paik Schoenberg. 2013

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Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the data is typically assessed using a variety of numerical tests, which unfortunately have low power and may be misleading for model comparison purposes. Promising alternatives exist, especially residual methods such as super-thinning and Voronoi residuals. This article reviews some of these tests and residual methods for determining the goodness of fit of earthquake forecasting models.

Subfields: Applied Mathematics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ff3b0d7aac04b05bbde82fc55735ed9c4c9a90a7