The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

By Alexander M. Millkey. 2009

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The modern portfolio theory as an investment decision tool (2012, background): “Generally, assets with higher expected returns are riskier (Taleb, 2007).”
Modeling infrastructure system interdependencies and socioeconomic impacts of failure in extreme events: emerging R&D challenges (2015, background): “…there has been much focus on deep uncertainties involved in the extremely unlikely events such as those called ‘‘perfect storms’’—a rare conjunction of known events (Junger 2009)—and ‘‘black swans’’—an extreme surprising event relative to the present knowledge (Aven 2013b; Taleb 2009, 2010, 2014).”
Global Governance and Systemic Risk in the 21st Century: Lessons from the Financial Crisis (2010, background): “While systemic risk has been seen as a threat caused by unpredictable, highly improbable, exogenous stochastic events (Albeverio et al., 2006; Taleb, 2007), we see systemic risk as reflecting endogenous structural weakness that can be predicted and better understood through network theory, interacti”