Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD

By John W. Williams, S. T. Jackson, J. Kutzbach. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006

1,371 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/fce7c6602799ddb9d80417fdfbfd809b2f085047

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Citations in the corpus

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals (2013, background): “models [32] and novel and disappearing climates [78,79] provides a further avenue for investigation, but since such models are simply alternative predictions with their own”
Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates (2011, background): “With long time horizons, novel climates are expected to become more widespread (Williams et al., 2007), and the problem of extrapolation may persist even when using larger calibration areas, and all the more when the species (a)”
Adoption and Dissemination Pathways for Climate-Smart Agriculture Technologies and Practices for Climate-Resilient Livelihoods in Lushoto, Northeast Tanzania (2017, background): “According to [14], 30 percent of the world’s climates are expected to be completely novel under climate change, thus 70 percent”
Predicting the future of species diversity: macroecological theory, climate change, and direct tests of alternative forecasting methods (2009, background): “All models, from the simplest correlation to most elaborate mechanistic model, must overcome the problem that future climates and land uses may lack current analogs, requiring extrapolation beyond current conditions (Williams et al. 2007).”
The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods (2009, background): “In general, the response of natural vegetation to projected climate change will be complex; some species will decrease, some increase, and new ones may also appear (Chen et al. 2003; Williams et al. 2007).”
Australia's Biodiversity and Climate Change (2010, background): “In addition, novel climates will almost surely emerge in the future; that is, combinations of temperatures, precipitation and seasonality that have no current analogues (Williams et al. 2007; Williams and Jackson 2007).”
Global Biodiversity Change: The Bad, the Good, and the Unknown (2012, background): “The rearrangement of communities may also lead to the development of new communities, particularly for regions where new climates without current analogs develop (21).”
Characterizing and predicting species distributions across environments and scales: Argentine ant occurrences in the eye of the beholder (2009, background): “These problems may be compounded in studies that attempt to predict range shifts caused by global change because climate predictions call for the appearance of environments with no present analogue (Pearson & Dawson, 2003; Williams et al., 2007).”
Beyond long-term averages: making biological sense of a rapidly changing world (2014, background): “Several recent discussions have explored the issue of “no analog” communities and have emphasized that correlative niche models based on existing patterns may fail to accurately capture limits under future, novel climatic conditions [24,25].”
Distributional migrations, expansions, and contractions of tropical plant species as revealed in dated herbarium records (2012, background): “Also, species will face increasing challenges caused by the emergence of novel climates (Williams et al., 2007), increased human land use (Soares-Filho et al., 2006), and altered species interactions (Hillyer & Silman, 2010; Kissling et al., 2010).”
Assisted colonization: Integrating conservation strategies in the face of climate change (2011, background): “, 2005; Root and Schneider, 2006) as existing environmental conditions are replaced by novel climate regimes (Williams et al., 2007).”