Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility

By George Loewenstein, Ted O’Donoghue, Matthew Rabin. 2000

1,197 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, General Decision Sciences, Marketing

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/fcd9f8c3e3366c9b080613bf3d2880f6a0427ccf

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Citations in the corpus

Using Behavioral Economics to Design More Effective Food Policies to Address Obesity (2014, background): “In addition, it leads to a projection bias, that is, the tendency for people to exaggerate the degree to which their future preferences will resemble their current ones (Loewenstein et al. 2003).”
Weather to go to College (2010, background): “A particularly robust finding in this literature is that people tend to bias their estimates of future utility towards their current utility, a phenomenon labelled Projection Bias by Loewenstein et al. (2003).”
Functional Neuroimaging of Intertemporal Choice Models: A Review (2010, background): “A number of promising candidates await testing (e.g., Fudenberg & Levine, 2006; Kalenscher & Pennartz, 2008; Loewenstein et al., 2003; O’Donoghue & Rabin, 2000; Ok & Masatlioglu, 2007).”
Relative Income, Happiness and Utility: An Explanation for the Easterlin Paradox and Other Puzzles (2008, neutral): “Loewenstein et al. (2003) specifically provide a model of misprediction of future preferences (and therefore misprediction of future experienced utility), and apply their model to lifetime consumption and saving, and the purchase of durable goods.”
Conscience Accounting: Emotional Dynamics and Social Behavior (2012, positive): “Specifically, Loewenstein, O’Donoghue, and Rabin (2003) argue that people exaggerate the similarity between their actual state-dependent tastes and their future tastes.”
The Psychological Effect of Weather on Car Purchases (2015, background): “…to predict a greater number of warm-weather states in the future when the current weather is warm relative to when the current weather is cold.18 Loewenstein, O’Donoghue, and Rabin (2003) assume that individuals correctly anticipate the path of states, but err when predicting the utility that…”
The ostrich effect: Selective attention to information (2009, background): “For example, people appear to derive greater utility from positive outcomes, and greater disutility from negative outcomes, when they feel personally responsible for the outcomes (Kahneman and Tversky 1982; Shefrin and Statman 1984; Loewenstein and Issacharoff 1994 ), when the outcomes are unexpect”
Mood fluctuations, projection bias, and volatility of equity prices (2002, background): “However, as is the case in Loewenstein et al. (2000), the objective of the present paper is to use simpli5ed models to capture some aspects of how individuals might be behaving rather than how they ought to behave.”