Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?

By Lutz Kilian, Bruce M. Hicks. 2013

387 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/fa860aa11f242fbaa4f941818cdea2d94684f98d

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

1. Lutz Kilian
2. Christiane Baumeister
3. Robert J. Vigfusson
4. Xiaoqing Zhou
5. Daniel Murphy
6. B. Fattouh
7. Lavan Mahadeva
8. George Filis

In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

1. Lutz Kilian
2. Christiane Baumeister
3. Xiaoqing Zhou
4. Robert J. Vigfusson
5. Daniel Murphy
6. B. Fattouh
7. Lavan Mahadeva
8. George Filis

Citations in the corpus

• What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies (2012, neutral): “Although this shock captures all other oil market specific shocks not explained by the other shocks in the model, Kilian (2009) argues that such a shock primarily captures precautionary demand for oil driven by the uncertain availability (scarcity) of future oil supply.”
• The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far? (2013, positive): “In fact, there is a large body of research quantifying broad-based shifts in the demand for all industrial commodities during 2003–08 (see, e.g., Kilian 2009a,b; Kilian and Murphy 2013; Kilian and Hicks 2013).”
• Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities (2018, positive): “When global commodity prices surged across the board after 2003, this increase was correctly attributed to an unexpected economic boom in emerging Asia, led by China (see, e.g., Kilian 2009a; Kilian and Hicks 2013).”
• Oil price dynamics , macro-nance interactions and the role of nancial speculation (2012, neutral): “…has however been challenged by Barsky and Kilian (2002, 2004) and, more recently, by Kilian (2008, 2009a,b), Kilian and Murphy (2010a, 2010b) and Kilian and Hicks (2011), showing that demand shocks would have shaped low frequency trend real oil price dynamics since the 1970s, while speculative…”
• THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL (2014, positive): “It may seem unlikely ex ante that a model would generate many more positive than negative demand shocks between 2003 and mid-2008, but Kilian and Hicks (2012) show that this feature is consistent with the errors in professional real GDP forecasts during this period.”
• Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices (2014, positive): “It has been shown that much of the surge in oil prices between 2003 and mid-2008 was associated with an unexpectedly booming world economy, notably in emerging Asia (see, e.g., Kilian and Hicks, 2013; Kilian and Murphy, 2014).”
• Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences (2014, background): “For example, Kilian and Hicks (2013) show the pattern of flow demand shocks during 2003-08 to be consistent with pattern of forecast errors made by professional real GDP forecasters.”
• The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions (2014, background): “Predictive regressions have played an important role in shaping the profession’s perceptions of asymmetries and nonlinearities in the relationship between oil prices and the economy, dating back to the work of Mork (1989). Most importantly, Hamilton (2003, 2011) provided evidence of a nonlinear pred”