Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty
By Joseph B. Steinberg. Journal of International Economics, 2019
143 citations recorded by the source corpus.
The United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union but the trade policies that will replace E.U. membership are uncertain, and speculation abounds that this uncertainty will harm the U.K. economy until it is resolved. To assess the impact of uncertainty about post-Brexit trade policies, I study a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous export participation and uncertainty about whether future U.K.-E.U. trade costs will be high or low. I find that the total welfare cost of Brexit for U.K. households is between £7,000 and £18,000 per person, while uncertainty about Brexit costs less than £45 per person.
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Citations in the corpus
- The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms (2019, unknown): “McGrattan and Waddle (2017) and Steinberg (2019) argue that Brexit is likely to reduce overall UK welfare, while Crowley et al. (2019) and Vandenbussche et al. (2019) argue that Brexit will cause economic damage to many firms outside the UK.”
- The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty (2019, background): “Similarly, Steinberg (2019) studies the implications of Brexit for the UK economy.”
- The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects (2017, background): “We find that increases in bilateral tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) between the UK and the EU 1 For example, Steinberg (2017) models the uncertainty costs of Brexit and finds they are small compared with the long-run effects.”