Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent

By J. Day, J. Hargreaves, J. Annan, A. Abe‐Ouchi. 2012

169 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979–2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979–2010) and an extended observational record (1953–2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5–3.1%/decade of the 10.1%/decade decline in September SIE (1979–2010) to AMO driven variability.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f7d84291e3674a5dc25675e64610880c31b3eb68

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Citations in the corpus

Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route (2018, background): “Arctic ice caps have been melting as a result of global warming (Kay et al., 2011; Day et al., 2012).”
A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts (2019, background): “Similar anticorrelations between AMV/AMOC and the Arctic sea ice extent exist in control simulations of multiple CGCMs, and in all these models, the anticorrelations are stronger in winter than in summer (Day et al., 2012).”
Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model (2019, background): “Whether this recent trend should be captured accurately in a model with little multidecadal variability, given evidence for some contribution from the latter to the observed decline (Day et al., 2012; Ding et al., 2019; Li et al., 2017, HELD ET AL.”
Causes of climate change over the historical record (2019, background): “Notz and Stroeve (2016) have suggested that summer Arctic sea ice is melting proportionally to cumulative carbon emissions, although other studies have proposed a role for internal variability in the recent decline (e.g. Day et al 2012).”
Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean (2014, background): “Since a part of the recent Arctic sea ice loss is attributable to the influence of the AMO (Day et al 2012), the AMO may also have an indirect effect on the atmospheric circulation through sea ice anomalies of the Arctic region.”
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss (2015, background): “…Circulation (AMOC), in particular, may play an important role in modulating rates of Northern Hemisphere sea ice loss because of the associated variations in heat transport into the high-latitude North Atlantic [Mahajan et al., 2011; Day et al., 2012; Koenigk et al., 2012; Msadek et al., 2014].”
Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation (2013, background): “It has been argued that a portion of the observed Arctic sea ice decline is attributable to the shift in the AMO towards its warm phase since the mid-1990s (Day et al 2012).”
CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (2020, background): “…(e.g., Palter, 2015) but its impacts include the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ; e.g., Marshall et al., 2014); Arctic sea ice (e.g., Day et al., 2012; Mahajan et al., 2011; Yeager & Robson, 2017); and the global response to Arctic sea ice loss (e.g., Tomas et al., 2016).”
Evolution of the Global Coupled Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss during 1990–2090 and Its Contribution to Climate Change (2018, background): “Internal climate variability may also have contributed to sea ice loss (e.g., Mahajan et al. 2011; Day et al. 2012; Yeager et al. 2015; Zhang 2015; Ding et al. 2017; Lee et al. 2017; Li et al. 2017, 2018).”