Clinical development success rates for investigational drugs

By Michael Hay, David W Thomas, J. L. Craighead, Celia Economides, Jesse Rosenthal. Nature Biotechnology, 2014

2,293 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f53cdd906b07c24b277a898c49259ca59fe492ad

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Citations in the corpus

Artificial intelligence in drug discovery and development (2020, neutral): “However, only one out of ten molecules entering these trials gain successful clearance, which is a massive loss for the industry [100].”
KinMap: a web-based tool for interactive navigation through human kinome data (2017, background): “%) compared to other indications [18].”
Cell-based tissue engineering strategies used in the clinical repair of articular cartilage (2016, background): “Despite a plethora of research published on cartilage tissue engineering, it is known that 90% of new drugs that advance past animal studies fail clinical trials [1].”
Analysis of drug combinations: current methodological landscape (2015, background): “The extrapolation of results from in vitro to animals, or from animals to humans is a general and separate scientific debate which is not expected to be solved here (Shanks et al. 2009; Chou 2010; Tsilidis et al. 2013; Hay et al. 2014).”
Artificial Intelligence for Clinical Trial Design. (2019, background): “More than one third of all Phase III compounds fail to advance to approval [4].”
Phenome-wide Mendelian randomization mapping the influence of the plasma proteome on complex diseases (2019, methodology): “Identifying cis and trans instruments We further split Tier 1 instruments into two groups: 1) cis-acting pQTLs within a 500Kb window from each side of the protein coding genes were used for the initial MR analysis (defined as the cis-only analysis) 20 ; (2) trans-acting pQTLs outside the 500Kb windo”
Carbapenem resistance: overview of the problem and future perspectives (2016, background): “from the US Food and Drug Administration [Hay et al. 2014].”
Systematic integration of biomedical knowledge prioritizes drugs for repurposing (2017, background): “The cost of developing a new therapeutic drug has been estimated at 1.4 billion dollars ( DiMasi et al., 2016 ), the process typically takes 15 years from lead compound to market ( Reich-ert, 2003 ), and the likelihood of success is stunningly low ( Hay et al., 2014 ).”
Open Targets Genetics: systematic identification of trait-associated genes using large-scale genetics and functional genomics (2020, background): “However, drug development is inefficient, with over 90% of the drugs that enter clinical trials failing, often at late stages, with the primary reason being an inability to demonstrate efficacy (1).”