Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties

By John J. Wiens, Diana Stralberg, D. Jongsomjit, Christine A. Howell, M. Snyder. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009

923 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/df77f36c64d14060460f81bdc92abe553b0b76a7

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Citations in the corpus

Potential of remote sensing to predict species invasions (2015, background): “…risks of policy or management failures associated with heavy reliance on correlative approaches (Barve et al., 2011; Dawson et al., 2011; Guisan et al., 2012, 2014; Petitpierre et al., 2012; Roubicek et al., 2010; Sinclair et al., 2010; Veloz et al., 2012; Webber et al., 2012; Wiens et al., 2009).”
The decline of Afro-Palaearctic migrants and an assessment of potential causes (2014, positive): “Climatic change for migrants may also disrupt competitive relationships between resident and migrant bird assemblages or create completely new species interactions (B€ohning-Gaese & Bauer 1996, Wiens et al. 2009).”
What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods (2011, background): “Notwithstanding their many applications (see for a review Guisan and Thuiller, 2005; Peterson, 2006; Wiens et al., 2009), the procedure always involves the calculation of a model that approximates the species’ distribution niche.”
Phytoplankton niches, traits and eco-evolutionary responses to global environmental change (2012, neutral): “However, much niche modeling suffers from a lack of a clear mechanistic basis and unrealistic assumptions , such as niche conservatism and absence of biotic interactions (Pearman et al. 2008, Kearney & Porter 2009, Wiens et al. 2009; reviewed further in the 'Niche models' section).”
Invasive weed species’ threats to global biodiversity: Future scenarios of changes in the number of invasive species in a changing climate (2020, background): “, 2013), as well as with the modeling techniques projecting climate conditions and the envelopes themselves, such as scale and resolution mismatches (Wiens et al., 2009), dispersal barriers (Haegeman and Loreau, 2008), lack of documentation on potential disturbances, and unknown or unforeseen biotic”
Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates (2011, background): “…calls have been made to explicitly address the methodological uncertainties of BEMs so as to quantify the conﬁdence that can be placed in forecasts (Thuiller et al. , 2004a; Arau´jo et al. , 2005b, 2006; Pearson et al. , 2006; Diniz-Filho et al. , 2009; Wiens et al. , 2009; Buisson et al. , 2010).”
Modeling Species and Community Responses to Past, Present, and Future Episodes of Climatic and Ecological Change (2015, background): “…in species-environment relationships is a fundamental problem in ecological forecasting because models may not be transferable between time periods, therefore potentially leading to uncertain future predictions and past reconstructions (Wiens et al. 2009, Feeley & Silman 2010, Veloz et al. 2012).”
Predicting species distribution at range margins: testing the effects of study area extent, resolution and threshold selection in the Sahara–Sahel transition zone (2014, methodology): “Models calibrated using coarser resolutions may substantially overestimate potentially suitable areas in comparison with those built with finer resolution data (Wiens et al., 2009).”
Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change (2011, background): “Biotic interactions are increasingly recognized as important components of climate-species relationships (4, 5), but are rarely included in projections of species distributions under future climates, with some notable exceptions (6).”