Scenario analysis of China’s emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition
By Tao Wang, Jim Watson. 2010
124 citations recorded by the source corpus.
China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Environmental Engineering, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f3742935b66d633c545c03039f1fbe38e55862b2
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Citations in the corpus
- The optimal CO2 emissions reduction path in Jiangsu province: An expanded IPAT approach (2013, unknown): “From scenario analysis of China’s emissions path, for example, policy suggestions have been put forward for development within a cumulative carbon-emissions budget [30].”
- The energy and water nexus in Chinese electricity production: A hybrid life cycle analysis (2014, background): “Increased concerns over climate change, national energy security and energy-related environmental repercussions in recent years have prompted the Chinese government to consider the transition to a low carbon electricity system [18-21].”
- The Political Economy of Energy Transitions: The Case of South Africa (2014, background): “Whereas countries such as India and China have attracted the lion’s share of over 5000 registered CDM projects to date, African countries have only recently seen the registration of the hundredth project on the continent, with 22 of these being hosted in South Africa, only 10 of which have yet been ”
- Energy and emissions forecast of China over a long-time horizon (2011, background): “, to 2020 or to 2050) [7e11] There is very limited detailed results for the period to 2100 although Wang and Watson [11] point to work on long term energy pathways for delivering deep emissions reductions.”
- A factor of two: how the mitigation plans of ‘climate progressive’ nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways (2020, unknown): “7 Path-ways progress from current rates of growth, through a 2025 peak in emissions, increasing to a maximum 10% mitigation rate, a timeframe and rate far more ambitious than in other similar global and national analyses (cf Arup, 2016; Holz et al., 2017; Wang & Watson, 2010).”