How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Output Growth

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The Yield Curve and the Macro-economy across Time and Frequencies" (Cef.up Working Paper nº. 2010-04, July 2010) (2012, methodology): “In such literature, the identification of changes in the relation between the yield curve and the macroeconomy was based on structural break tests (as in, e.g., Estrella, Rodrigues and Schich (2003) and Giacomini and Rossi (2006)).”
The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting (2008, methodology): “Some of the studies that test out-of-sample forecastability using the ENCNEW are Franses and Legerstee (2007), Rossi (2006), Zagaglia (2006), Boucher (2006), Giacomini and Rossi (2006), Rangvid, Rapach, Wohar (2005).”
The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions (2006, background): “Giacomini and Rossi (2005) and Estrella, Rodrigues, and Schich (2003) find evidence that the predictive power of the yield curve for growth has weakened since the 1980s.”
Advances in Forecasting Under Instability (2012, unknown): “Giacomini and Rossi (2006) focus on predicting U.S. GDP using the U.S. yield curve.”
Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Linear and Nonlinear Multivariate Models (2014, unknown): “The stability of the forecast performance of the term spread in the linear model has been questioned (see Giacomini and Rossi, 2006, and the references therein), and it may be another explanation to the di erences.”