PREDICTING INVASIONS: PROPAGULE PRESSURE AND THE GRAVITY OF ALLEE EFFECTS

By B. Leung, John M. Drake, David M. Lodge. 2004

279 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Invasions by nonindigenous species impose large environmental and eco- nomic costs. In order to prevent invasions and target monitoring efforts most effectively, we need to forecast locations at the greatest risk of new invasions. To accomplish this, we need to estimate propagule pressure (inoculum size) and consider population processes, including possible Allee effects. Here, we develop a method to estimate the probability of population establishment, based on survival analysis and maximum likelihood techniques. We demonstrate theoretically the validity of this approach, considering environmental het- erogeneity, estimation error, and nonlinearity. We then apply this method to zebra mussel ( Dreissena polymorpha) invasions of Michigan inland lakes. We fit our model using pres- ence/absence data for 1589 lakes between 1992 and 1996 and propagule pressure estimates from gravity models of boater traffic. Using our fitted model, we estimated the probabilities of establishment and demonstrated that Allee effects were present in the zebra mussel system. We validated our model using invasion data from 1997-2001 (data not used to parameterize the model). For the validation time period, we correctly predicted up to nine times as many invasions as a null (random) model. Further, the Allee model assigned average probabilities of invasion four times higher for lakes that became invaded than for uninvaded lakes, whereas the non-Allee model predicted probabilities for invaded lakes only two times higher. Thus, our model demonstrates the importance of considering the Allee effect and improves predictions of invasions.

Subfields: Ecology, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f2ec80e53f11fcdcd75e3385ee500319c8c2bb16

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Citations in the corpus

Twenty years of zebra mussels: lessons from the mollusk that made headlines (2009, background): “Gravity models have been especially useful in predicting the spread of zebra mussels (Bossenbroek et al. 2001, 2007; Leung et al. 2004).”
The Role of Propagule Pressure in Invasion Success (2009, background): “In part this may be because the basic relationship is rather intuitive: increasing propagule pressure should lead to an increased probability of invasion success ( Leung et al. 2004 ).”
Alien Non-Marine Snails and Slugs of Priority Quarantine Importance in the United States: A Preliminary Risk Assessment (2009, background): “…molluscs (e.g., Veltman et al. 1996, Goodwin et al. 1999, Lockwood 1999, Duncan et al. 2001, Kolar and Lodge 2001, Sakai et al. 2001, Daehler et al. 2004, Leung et al. 2004, Marchetti et al. 2004, Theoharides and Dukes 2007, Alonso and Castro-Díez 2008, Bomford et al. 2008, Hayes and Barry 2008).”
Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments (2011, background): “The invasion process consists of a series of steps, including transport, establishment, spread, and impact (Williamson 1996), and different strategies have been developed to address and mitigate invasions at each stage (Shigesada and Kawasaki 1997; Parker et al. 1999; Williamson 1999; Davis et al. 2”
Patterns and Pathways in the Post-Establishment Spread of Non-Indigenous Aquatic Species: The Slowing Invasion of North American Inland Lakes by the Zebra Mussel (2006, background): “…may have similarly accounted for the second and larger peak of invasions in Michigan that occurred 4–6 years after the initial peak, which is consistent with gravity model analyses that show a shift in the source of invasions from Great Lakes to inland lakes in Michigan (Leung et al. 2004).”
Marine invasion genetics: from spatio-temporal patterns to evolutionary outcomes (2014, background): “…al. 2002; Gaither et al. 2012) and key population processes such as genetic bottleneck, genetic drift, lag period and/or Allee effects (Tsutsui et al. 2000; Leung et al. 2004; Crooks 2005; Dawson and Hamner 2005; Taylor and Hastings 2005) can be responsible for reducing levels of genetic diversity.”
Population ecology of insect invasions and their management. (2008, background): “growing recognition of its importance during the establishment phase of biological invasions (26, 68, 133).”