El Niño: Catastrophe or Opportunity

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Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO (2007, methodology): “…EN and LN years defined using our percentile method correspond to the Northern Hemisphere summers before the peaks of the ENSO events and correspond well to the ENSO events obtained using more traditional definitions; see for instance, Trenberth (1997), as discussed by Goddard and Dilley (2005) .”
A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments (2012, unknown): “There is no substitute for confronting a model with assimilated observations, and making actual predictions, for estimating the skill.”
Predictability of June–September Rainfall in Ethiopia (2007, background): “The impact of the ENSO variability on global climate has been well documented (Ropelewski and Halpert 1987; Mason and Goddard 2001; Goddard and Dilley 2005, among many others).”
Seasonal climate forecasting (2010, background): “…produced while an El Niño is under way: models are often sensitive to stronger anomalies such as those provided by an El Niño and hence their response may emerge from the noise during such events and may then provide a useful forecast (Goddard and Dilley, 2005; Livezey and Timofeyeva, 2008).”
Improved Combination of Multiple Atmospheric GCM Ensembles for Seasonal Prediction (2004, background): “The peaks in skill are largely consistent with the timing of ENSO events (Goddard 2005).”