Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends

By P. Grassini, Kent M. Eskridge, K. Cassman. Nature Communications, 2013

776 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops. Previous projections of food security are often more optimistic than what historical yield trends would support. Many econometric projections of future food production assume compound rates of yield gain, which are not consistent with historical yield trends. Here we provide a framework to characterize past yield trends and show that linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends, which means the relative rate of gain decreases over time. Furthermore, there is evidence of yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain, including rice in eastern Asia and wheat in northwest Europe, which account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production. Estimating future food production capacity would benefit from an analysis of past crop yield trends based on a robust statistical analysis framework that evaluates historical yield trajectories and plateaus. Food security and the conservation of natural ecosystems largely rely on the increase in crop yields. Here, the authors examine global crop yield trends since 1960, and establish a robust statistical framework for estimating historical trajectories and identifying yield plateaus.

Subfields: Agronomy and Crop Science, Plant Science, Soil Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f126750459b18aa03392125fb0949a7717f6e771

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Citations in the corpus

Breeding high-yield superior quality hybrid super rice by rational design (2016, neutral): “However, yields per hectare have effectively plateaued in China, Indonesia, Japan and Korea, and although rising linearly in some key countries such as India and Vietnam, the rates of increase are too slow tomeet future demands [8].”
Trade-offs between environment and livelihoods: Bridging the global land use and food security discussions (2017, neutral): “Grassini et al. (2013) found widespread deceleration in the relative rate of increase of average yields of the major cereal crops during the 1990–2010 period in countries with greatest production of these crops, and strong evidence of yield plateaus or an abrupt drop in rate of yield gain in 44% of…”
The Global Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus (2018, background): “Many places around the world—23–37% of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat areas—are experiencing a plateau or collapse of major crop yields from a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic factors (Grassini et al., 2013; Ray & Foley, 2013).”
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for High-Throughput Phenotyping and Agronomic Research (2016, background): “6 Mg ha in 2015 [4, 5] through conventional plant breeding and changes in agronomic practices [6], but gains in many crops have slowed [7, 8].”
Genetic Regulation of Shoot Architecture. (2018, background): “However, rice yields per hectare have plateaued in China, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea, and although rising in India and Vietnam, the rates of increase are too slow to fulfill the demands (50).”
Assessing vulnerabilities and limits in the transition to renewable energies: Land requirements under 100% solar energy scenarios (2017, background): “However, after decades of improvement due to agricultural intensification (based on inputs such as fertilizers, energy, water and capital equipment), yields might be approaching biophysical limits in some developed countries, and could stagnate for socioeconomic reasons in developing countries [1,33”
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation (2018, neutral): “However, it is questioned if crop improvements can continue in the future because biological limits may have been reached (Grassini et al., 2013).”
Industry-Scale Evaluation of Maize Hybrids Selected for Increased Yield in Drought-Stress Conditions of the US Corn Belt (2015, background): “Yield gains of grain crops in major grain-growing regions have been stagnating or are in decline (Deepak et al., 2012; Grassini et al., 2013; Hall and Richards, 2012).”
Agronomic Practices for Reducing Wheat Yield Gaps: A Quantitative Appraisal of Progressive Producers (2019, neutral): “In high-yielding wheat regions, yield stagnation might result from regional yield approaching 70 to 80% of the yield potential (Grassini et al., 2013), resulting in a small yield gap (YG), which is the difference between average regional yield and the yield limited only by moisture regime in rainfed”
Genetic Progress in Grain Yield and Physiological Traits in Chinese Wheat Cultivars of Southern Yellow and Huai Valley since 1950 (2017, methodology): “…intercept of equations was estimated by a, while slope b measured absolute grain yield gains [1] and u represents the residual error; y is relative rates of yield gain (% yr−1), and GY2011–2012 is the averaged grain yield of cultivars released in 2011 to 2012 (Grassini et al., 2013; Fischer, 2015).”
Predicting the future of plant breeding: complementing empirical evaluation with genetic prediction (2014, background): “…in understanding the major environmental, socioeconomic and emerging scientific trends expected to impact and shape the likely paths that will unfold in the future of global agriculture (Evans 1998; Smith et al. 2005a; Tuberosa et al. 2005; Edgerton 2009; Boyer et al. 2013; Grassini et al. 2013).”