Indices for assessing the prediction bounds of hydrological models and application by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation / Indices pour évaluer les bornes de prévision de modèles…

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Uncertainty estimates by Bayesian method with likelihood of AR (1) plus Normal model and AR (1) plus Multi-Normal model in different time-scales hydrological models (2011, background): “…the width of 95CI, the average distance between the upper and the lower limits of 95% confidence intervals, 95PPU (d-factor), (Li et al., 2009; Xiong et al., 2009; Yang et al., 2008); and (3) indices to compare the distribution of the uncertainty estimates (reliability) which include the…”