Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession
By Danny Yagan. Journal of Political Economy, 2019
280 citations recorded by the source corpus.
This paper uses US local areas as a laboratory to test for long-term impacts of the Great Recession. In administrative longitudinal data, I estimate that exposure to a 1 percentage point larger 2007–9 local unemployment shock reduced 2015 working-age employment rates by over 0.3 percentage points. Rescaled, this long-term recession impact accounts for over half of the 2007–15 US age-adjusted employment decline. Impacts were larger among older and lower-earning individuals and typically involved a layoff but are present even in a mass-layoffs sample. Disability insurance and out-migration yielded little income replacement. These findings reveal that the Great Recession imposed employment and income losses even after unemployment rates signaled recovery.
Subfields: Demography, Economics and Econometrics, General Health Professions
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ee496df47718cf666155ef01345959833b78f1ee
How researchers see this paper
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In Demography
In Economics and Econometrics
- Olivier J. Blanchard
- Theodore Papageorgiou
- F. Schiantarelli
- Maria Joana Soares
- Lawrence M. Kahn
- M. Riggi
- Pascal Towbin
- Eleonora Patacchini
In General Health Professions
Citations in the corpus
- The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles (2019, unknown): “As documented by others, we find that the net migration rate was very low during the Great Recession (see, for example, Yagan (2017)).”
- Flexible Wages, Bargaining, and the Gender Gap (2020, unknown): “27This strategy is similar to Yagan (2019), who estimates the effects of local unemployment rates on employment during the Great Recession (2007-2009) assigning local rates to workers based on workers’ location in January 2007. the salary schedules used by districts after Act 10.”
- Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis (2018, background): “A careful study by Yagan (2017) however reaches a different conclusion.”
- Do School Spending Cuts Matter? Evidence from the Great Recession (2018, unknown): “To do so, we follow the steps broadly outlined in Yagan (2017).”