Long‐range forecasting

By A. Gilchrist. 1986

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The Tourism Forecasting Competition (2011, neutral): “ISSN 1440-771X”
Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence (2015, unknown): “Armstrong (1985) found five comparative studies; the use of simultaneous equations failed to improve accuracy in any of them (p. 200).”
Findings from Evidence-Based Forecasting: Methods for Reducing Forecast Error (2006, unknown): “…in a study of the air travel market, an econometric model reduced error consistently as the forecast horizon increased from 1 to 6 years ahead (Armstrong 1985, p. 405); an unweighted average of horizons 2 through 6 (representing 15 ex ante forecasts) showed that the MAPE for the econometric…”
Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge (2010, background): “In the subsequent rounds the respondents can reformulate their opinions to reach a consensus (Armstrong, 1985; Rowe and Wright, 1999), which can be seen as an informed consensus.”
Illusions in Regression Analysis (2012, unknown): “Forecast accuracy and confidence We have ample evidence that regression analysis often provides useful forecasts (Armstrong 1985; Allen and Fildes 2001).”