Are Markets Truly Efficient? Experiments Using Deep Learning Algorithms for Market Movement Prediction

By Sanjiv Ranjan Das, Karthik Mokashi, Robbie Culkin. 2018

17 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We examine the use of deep learning (neural networks) to predict the movement of the S&P 500 Index using past returns of all the stocks in the index. Our analysis finds that the future direction of the S&P 500 index can be weakly predicted by the prior movements of the underlying stocks in the index, but not strongly enough to reject market efficiency. Decomposition of the prediction error indicates that most of the lack of predictability comes from randomness and only a little from nonstationarity. We believe this is the first test of S&P 500 market efficiency that uses a very large information set, and it extends the domain of weak-form market efficiency tests.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Management Science and Operations Research, Economics & Operations Research, Time-Series & Forecasting

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

1. Omer Berat Sezer
2. A. Ozbayoglu
3. M. Ugur Gudelek

In Management Science and Operations Research

1. M. Ugur Gudelek
2. Omer Berat Sezer
3. A. Ozbayoglu
4. Weiwei Jiang
5. Longbing Cao

In Economics & Operations Research

1. A. Ozbayoglu
2. M. Ugur Gudelek
3. Omer Berat Sezer

In Time-Series & Forecasting

1. M. Ugur Gudelek
2. Omer Berat Sezer
3. A. Ozbayoglu
4. Weiwei Jiang
5. Longbing Cao

Citations in the corpus

• Financial Time Series Forecasting with Deep Learning : A Systematic Literature Review: 2005-2019 (2019, methodology): “In [183], NN with the price data were used for prediction of the trend of S&P500 stock indices.”