Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach
By Carl Bonham, Byron Gangnes, Ting Zhou. 2009
77 citations recorded by the source corpus.
System-based cointegration methods have become popular tools for economic analysis and forecasting. However, the identification of structural relationships is often problematic. Using a theory-directed sequential reduction method suggested by Hall, Henry and Greenslade [Hall, S. G., Henry, S., & Greenslade, J. (2002). On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: A modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 1517–1537], we estimate a vector error correction model of Hawaii tourism, where both demand and supply-side influences are important. We identify reasonable long-run equilibrium relationships, and Diebold–Mariano tests for forecast accuracy demonstrate satisfactory forecasting performance.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics
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In Economics and Econometrics
- D. Wu
- Haiyan Song
- Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
- George Athanasopoulos
- Rob J Hyndman
- Nikolaos Bougioukos
- Gang Li
- Shujie Shen
Citations in the corpus
- The Tourism Forecasting Competition (2011, background): “It is also popular in the tourism literature with unrestricted models and also models incorporating long-run restrictions (see, for example, Kulendran and King, 1997; Witt et al., 2003; Song and Witt, 2006; Bonham et al., 2009).”