Commitment accounting of CO2 emissions

By R. Socolow. 2013

163 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The world not only continues to build new coal-fired power plants, but built more new coal plants in the past decade than in any previous decade. Worldwide, an average of 89 gigawatts per year (GW yr–1) of new coal generating capacity was added between 2010 and 2012, 23 GW yr–1 more than in the 2000–2009 time period and 56 GW yr–1 more than in the 1990–1999 time period. Natural gas plants show a similar pattern. Assuming these plants operate for 40 years, the fossil-fuel burning plants built in 2012 will emit approximately 19 billion tons of CO2 (Gt CO2) over their lifetimes, versus 14 Gt CO2 actually emitted by all operating fossil fuel power plants in 2012. We find that total committed emissions related to the power sector are growing at a rate of about 4% per year, and reached 307 (with an estimated uncertainty of 192–439) Gt CO2 in 2012. These facts are not well known in the energy policy community, where annual emissions receive far more attention than future emissions related to new capital investments. This paper demonstrates the potential for ‘commitment accounting’ to inform public policy by quantifying future emissions implied by current investments.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e9ba2a4a728f1876ecd33da2878c671bf30b1999

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Citations in the corpus

Introduction to special issue: stranded assets and the environment (2017, background): “Keeping track of progress towards emission reduction targets and understanding how ‘committed emissions’1 should influence decarbonisation plans developed by governments, as well as companies and investors (e.g. see Davis, Caldeira, and Matthews 2010; Davis and Socolow 2014; Pfeiffer et al. 2016).”
Carbon‐Neutral Pathways for the United States (2021, background): “…high ‐ emitting, low ‐ ef ﬁ ciency, and fuel ‐ consuming technologies are replaced by low ‐ emitting, high ‐ ef ﬁ ciency, and electricity ‐ consuming technologies, at the scale and pace necessary to reach the emission targets (Davis et al., 2010, 2018; Davis & Socolow, 2014; Shearer et al., 2020).”
When starting with the most expensive option makes sense: Optimal timing, cost and sectoral allocation of abatement investment (2018, background): “Note: We follow Davis and Socolow (2014) in measuring investment in committed abatement, ( δ i x i,t in MtCO 2 /yr) instead of crude investment ( x i,t in MtCO 2 /yr 2 ).”
The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy (2016, background): “d Only electricity generation capital stock based on Davis and Socolov [16]: CCCE of 307GtCO2 (84GtC) in 2012 growing by 4% p.”
Stranded assets and stranded resources: Implications for climate change mitigation and global sustainable development (2019, background): “The average lifetimes of electric power-generating fossil fuel plants range between 35–40 years [13], while oil and gas plants can last up to 55 years and coal plant lifetimes can be 75 years [14].”
Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles (2019, background): “Davis and Socolow (2014) have estimated that future cumulative CO2 emissions embodied in global power plants in 2012 were 307 GtCO2.”
The 1.5°C target and coal sector transition: at the limits of societal feasibility (2018, background): “This result is consistent with the results in Davis and Socolow (2014) which find that ‘committed emissions’1 from existing coal power plant stock as of 2012 was 206 Gt CO2.”
Committed emissions from existing and planned power plants and asset stranding required to meet the Paris Agreement (2018, methodology): “Coal-, gasand oil-powered generators have a typical lifetime of between 35–40 years (Davis and Socolow 2014).”
The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels (2018, background): “…Figure 1) will inevitably lead to significant amounts of stranded assets in China and other countries with new or planned coal-fired power plant fleets, such as India, depending on the requirements on return on investments (cf. Davis & Socolow, 2014; Pfeiffer, Millar, Hepburn, & Beinhocker, 2016).”