Errors, Robustness, and the Fourth Quadrant

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Modeling infrastructure system interdependencies and socioeconomic impacts of failure in extreme events: emerging R&D challenges (2015, background): “…there has been much focus on deep uncertainties involved in the extremely unlikely events such as those called ‘‘perfect storms’’—a rare conjunction of known events (Junger 2009)—and ‘‘black swans’’—an extreme surprising event relative to the present knowledge (Aven 2013b; Taleb 2009, 2010, 2014).”