The Future of Oil: Geology Versus Technology

By Marcelle Chauvet, Jack Selody, D. Laxton, Michael Kumhof, Jaromı́r Beneš, O. Kamenik, Susanna Mursula. Social Science Research Network, 2012

124 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We discuss and reconcile the geological and economic/technological views concerning the future of world oil production and prices, and present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out-of-sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade, though the error bands are wide, reflecting sharply differing judgments on the ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.

Subfields: Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e8602c63c678266d51506ca89f7ca3766f00c4b4

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In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Citations in the corpus

The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials (2014, background): “…impact of a 3% fall in output on prices in 1970s with the oil crises, it can be seen that a potential shortfall of 10,000 million barrels will have catastrophic consequences, with suggestions of a ‘near doubling, permanently, of real oil prices over the coming decade’ (Benes et al., 2012, p. 17).”
The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers (2016, methodology): “For example, an IMF study by Benes et al. (2015), using data up to 2009, predicted a near doubling of the price of oil over the coming decade based on the view that geological constraints would win out over technological improvements in conserving oil use and in oil extraction. skepticism was…”
Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us (2016, background): “5 A case in point is an IMF study by Benes et al. (2015) that, using data up to 2009, predicted a near doubling of the price of oil over the coming decade based on the view that geological constraints would win out over technological improvements in conserving oil use and in oil extraction.”
The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (2015, unknown): “Over time, cost of unconventional oil production is likely to decline as new technologies will reduce the cost of exploration and extraction (Benes et al. 2012).”
Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach (2014, unknown): “…as well as by international institutional agencies -together with the acknowledgment of peak oil basic theory as an appropriate methodology - (Benes et al., 2012; WEC, 2010; WEO, 2012, 2010), representing government declarations (e.g. the European Energy Commissioner2 in 2009) and even from…”