The topography of the divorce plateau: Levels and trends in union stability in the United States after 1980

By R. Raley, L. Bumpass. 2003

365 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The probability of divorce in the U.S. has remained constant for the last two decades at about 'half of all marriages.' While this estimate is well established, and marked differentials in divorced rates are well known, there are no reliable estimates of differences in the cumulative probability of lifetime divorce. Using data from the 1990 June CPS, we document very large differentials by race, age at marriage, and education in the probability that recent cohorts of marriage will end in separation or divorce. Then, using data from the 1995 NSFG, we find important increases in differentials in marital dissolution, and especially in all unions, during this period of stable aggregate rates. These results indicate that examining only at marital transitions obscures the growth in family instability that has resulted among some groups because of an increasing proportion of unions begun as cohabitation.

Subfields: Demography, Gender Studies, Sociology and Political Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e57a484ee8f88b8a005e90ccfd073b418991f50f

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Citations in the corpus

Economic Insecurity and Social Stratification (2012, background): “The high rate of single parenthood among African American families is well documented, and this pattern is matched by high rates of cohabitation, divorce, and separation (Bumpass & Lu 2000, Raley 1996, Raley & Bumpass 2003).”
Understanding Racial Differences in Marital Disruption: Recent Trends and Explanations (2003, background): “…divorce (Amato, 2000; Holden & Smock, 1991; Waite, 1995), evidence of higher levels of disruption among Blacks than Whites (Bramlett & Mosher, 2002; Raley & Bumpass, 2003), and the considerable attention paid to understanding racial differences in patterns of marriage formation (e.g. Bennett,…”
The grit effect: predicting retention in the military, the workplace, school and marriage (2013, background): “Likewise, despite the hopeful newlywed promise “til death do us part,” approximately half of American marriages end in divorce (Schoen and Standish, 2001; Raley and Bumpass, 2003; Stevenson and Wolfers, 2007).”
"Everything's There Except Money": How Money Shapes Decisions to Marry among Cohabitors. (2005, background): “Recent estimates by Raley and Bumpass (2003), for example, suggest that 60% of marriages among women without high school degrees will end in separation or divorce, compared to one third for college graduates.”
Race-ethnic differences in marital quality and divorce (2007, background): “The age at which one marries is negatively associated with marital stability, and Hispanics are much more likely to marry at young ages (Oropesa and Landale, 2004; Raley and Bumpass, 2003).”
For Better or For Worse? The Consequences of Marriage and Cohabitation for Single Mothers (2008, neutral): “…from the social support and emotional resources that accompany intimate relationships, cohabiting unions are less stable (Bumpass and Lu 2000; Raley and Bumpass 2003), offer fewer economic resources (Brines and Joyner 1999; Lerman 2002), and have lower levels of relationship quality and…”
Women's Education and Family Behavior: Trends in Marriage, Divorce and Fertility (2010, neutral): “Remarried Full sample White Women Black Women White Men Black Men”
Demographic Trends in the United States: A Review of Research in the 2000s (2010, background): “Raley and Bumpass (2003) reported similar findings for the dissolution of all unions (whether marital or cohabiting) during the period of 1980 to 1994: The probability of dissolution increased for all educational groups except those with college degrees, among whom the probability remained…”