The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate
By N. Tchebakova, E. Parfenova, A. Soja. 2009
223 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest–steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest–steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000–10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e4f8ecf805080fd77d3381c05eb2f30e3002d2c9
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Citations in the corpus
- The Palaearctic steppe biome: a new synthesis (2016, background): “For the West Siberian forests steppes, a shift of vegetation zones to the North due to warming has been proposed (Tchebakova et al. 2009).”
- Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008: ecological variability and regional differences (2011, background): “Regardless, forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are projected to expand northwards into the current southern extent of the Siberian forest (Vygodskaya et al 2007, Tchebakova et al 2009).”