Analysis of a link between fall Arctic sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter
By S. Hopsch, Judah Cohen, K. Dethloff. 2012
112 citations recorded by the source corpus.
ABSTRACT The impact of anomalous fall Arctic sea ice concentrations (SICs) on atmospheric patterns in the following winter is revisited by analysing results for two time periods: the most recent, satellite-era period (1979–2010) and a longer time-period (1950–2010). On the basis of September SICs for each time-period, an index was constructed which was used to identify anomalous high/low SIC years for both the original, as well as for the linearly detrended sea ice index. Identified years were then used to derive composites for the following winter's monthly atmospheric variables. Mid-troposphere geopotential height composites for winter months are in general reminiscent of the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern with high latitude maximum shifted towards the Barents Sea. Also, lower troposphere temperatures indicate the presence of cooler conditions over the continents during low SIC years. However, differences in the composite patterns are significant only for areas with limited spatial extent. While suggested pathways in previously published studies seem reasonable, our results show that these findings are not yet robust enough from a statistical significance perspective. More data (e.g. provided by longer, climate-quality reanalysis datasets) are needed before conclusions of impacts and feedbacks can be drawn with certainty.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/dff4570278d449d8947406c576b32a29509e0a90
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Citations in the corpus
- Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation (2013, result): “This is consistent with the broader view that mid-latitude responses to past Arctic sea ice loss are, in general, small compared to internal variability (Hopsch et al 2012, Screen et al 2013a, 2013b).”
- Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss (2013, background): “…of cold events (figure 3(a)) and decreased winter mean temperatures (figure 3(d)) extending southeastward from eastern Europe through central Asia to central China, consistent with Hopsch et al (2012), which is attributable to the increased incidence of blockings in eastern Europe (figure 2(d)).”
- The stratospheric pathway for Arctic impacts on midlatitude climate (2016, background): “…over the Barents-Kara Sea, modulates atmospheric circulation in the subsequent fall-to-winter so as to strengthen the Siberia High, which often brings severe winters to eastern Eurasia [Honda et al., 2009;Overland et al., 2011; Hopsch et al., 2012;Orsolini et al., 2012;Mori et al., 2014].”