Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions
By Emmanuel Roulin. 2006
144 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Abstract. A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean.
Subfields: Global and Planetary Change, Ocean Engineering, Water Science and Technology
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/de20344636a2ad2549d2200d016ca3b85f805c51
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In Global and Planetary Change
In Ocean Engineering
In Water Science and Technology
Citations in the corpus
- Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. (2009, background): “Royal Meterological Institue of Belgium ECMWF Roulin (2007) and Roulin and”
- Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables (2006, unknown): “…example, a continuous-valued forecast can always be converted into a binary prediction by using a threshold filter (e.g., Georgakakos et al., 2004; Roulin, 2007): this allows one to use verification tools developed for binary variables, but it also reduces the amount of information carried by the…”