Use of the “Odds Ratio” for Diagnosing Forecast Skill

By David B. Stephenson. 2000

332 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Management Science and Operations Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/dd89c981fba7639941b6a1942927765430a1cba7

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In Atmospheric Science

In Global and Planetary Change

In Management Science and Operations Research

Citations in the corpus

Two alternative evaluation metrics to replace the true skill statistic in the assessment of species distribution models (2019, background): “F (5) ORSS measures skill compared to a random prediction, is a synonym of Yule’s Q (1900) and was introduced to meteorology by Stephenson (2000).”
The ROC Curve and the Area under It as Performance Measures (2004, methodology): “…for example, reﬁnement, resolution, reliability, etc. Meteorologists (Harvey et al. 1992; Mason 1982; Mason and Graham 1999; Stephenson 2000; Wilks 2001; Atger 2004) have also become interested in a procedure heavily utilized in medical circles (Dorfman and Alf 1969; Dorfman et al. 1997;…”
Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score (2007, background): “Woodcock (1976), Seaman et al. (1996), Kane and Brown (2000), Stephenson (2000), Thornes and Stephenson (2001), and Wilks (2006, section 7.9) propose confidence intervals for scores of deterministic binary-event forecasts.”
Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality (2009, background): “For example, Stephenson (2000) shows that the four elements of the 2 3 2 contingency table (A–”
Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multicategory Variables (2009, unknown): “Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multicategory Variables”
Extremal Dependence Indices: Improved Verification Measures for Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Binary Events (2011, background): “Another type of unskillful modiﬁ-cation is to switch forecasts randomly from events to nonevents or vice versa (Stephenson 2000).”
Equitability Revisited: Why the ''Equitable Threat Score'' Is Not Equitable (2010, methodology): “It was shown by Stephenson et al. (2008) that almost all mea-”
Detection of Undocumented Changepoints Using Multiple Test Statistics and Composite Reference Series. (2005, methodology): “, Murphy and Winkler 1987) also may be applied to hypothesis testing (Stephenson 2000).”
Sensitivity of Precipitation Forecast Skill Scores to Bilinear Interpolation and a Simple Nearest-Neighbor Average Method on High-Resolution Verification Grids (2003, methodology): “This last score is also known as the true skill statistic (TSS; Flueck 1987) or the Peirce skill score (PSS; Peirce 1884; Stephenson 2000).”
Sampling Uncertainty and Confidence Intervals for the Brier Score and Brier Skill Score (2008, background): “…for categorical forecast verification measures, such as the probability of detection or hit rate (Kane and Brown 2000; Jolliffe 2007), odds ratio (Stephenson 2000), false alarm rate and skill scores (Thornes and Stephenson 2001), the correlation coefficient (Jolliffe 2007), and relative…”
A semiparametric multivariate and multisite weather generator (2007, methodology): “[41] The log-odds ratio [Stephenson, 2000], which is a measure used to compare the hits and false alarms in weather forecast, is applied here to compare the performance of spatial occurrence of precipitation from the simulation.”
Measuring the accuracy of species distribution models: a review (2009, methodology): “It has also been “rediscovered” and reworked more recently (Stephenson 2000).”