Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap
By Shekhar Aiyar, R. Duval, Damien Puy, Yiqun Wu, Longmei Zhang. Japan and The World Economy, 2013
293 citations recorded by the source corpus.
The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results - including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries - are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/dc0ebec64b5959781f60c826c5db7abb341b7957
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Citations in the corpus
- The Middle-Income Trap: More Politics than Economics (2016, background): “See also Aiyar et al. (2013: 7-8). 6 For authors emphasizing one or more of these policy solutions, see Agenor and Canuto (2012), Lee (2014), Lin and Treichel (2012), Aiyar et al. (2013), Paus (2014), and Eichengreen et al.”
- Caught in the Middle? The Economics of Middle-Income Traps (2017, unknown): “(2012), Aiyar et al. (2013), Im and Rosenblatt (2013), and Ye and Robertson (2015).4 The key idea has been to identify, using either rigorous econometric techniques or simple criteria, statistically significant breaks or turning points in time-series data on levels or growth rates in per capita inco”