Structure dependence between oil and agricultural commodities returns: The role of geopolitical risks

By Aviral Kumar Tiwari, M. Boachie, Muhammed Tahir Suleman, Rangan Gupta. 2020

117 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The link between energy and agricultural markets have been studied extensively in the last two decades. Nonetheless, the literature fails to consider the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs), geopolitical risks due to acts and GPRs due to threats in studying the link between the two markets. Addressing these issues, we examine the dependence between crude oil prices and agricultural commodities (oats, corn, wheat and soybean) for a period starting from April 4, 1990, to February 15, 2019. Our study used copula-based techniques to study the co-movement. We find that strong comovements between energy markets and agricultural markets, which are also negatively influenced by GPRs, and hence suggest the ability of agricultural commodities, particularly corn, oats and wheat, to act as hedge against oil returns downturn resulting from geopolitical unrest. This evidence of hedging is further vindicated, when we observe that agricultural and oil markets are negatively correlated when the former is bullish and the latter bearish.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, General Energy

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d82f681c9e3cca232fca2b000d939e6fe71d07ab