Making reference solar forecasts with climatology, persistence, and their optimal convex combination

By Dazhi Yang. Solar Energy, 2019

78 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract Climatology and persistence are the two most popular naive reference methods for benchmarking deterministic solar forecasts. Depending on the forecast horizon, the preferred reference methods differ. This brief note derives the general relationship among climatology, persistence, and their optimal convex combination. The value of the lag-h autocorrelation is shown to be the main indicator of choice for the standard of reference.

Subfields: Artificial Intelligence, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d73ecf69e05546bcceb00d0a538f07537f5d08bd