Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications

By Malte Meinshausen, T. Wigley, S. Raper. 2011

176 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO 2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO 2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d61df75059082e1766b19e590c2b70ee67e9ea8b

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

In Global and Planetary Change

Citations in the corpus

Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget (2013, methodology): “GMT and corresponding greenhouse gas trajectories for temperature increases of 1.5–5.0 K above pre-industrial level by 2100 in steps of 0.5 K were generated using the reduced complexity climate model MAGICC6 (Meinshausen et al 2011).”
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios (2018, methodology): “An exception was made to the GLOBIO models, which used MAGICC 6.0 climate data (Meinshausen et al., 2011b, 2011a) in the IMAGE model framework (Stehfest et al., 2014), to which GLOBIO is tightly connected (Table 2).”
Evaluation of CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM‐ESM2‐1: Role of Earth System Processes in Present‐Day and Future Climate (2019, methodology): “Despite of the their high ECS, both CNRM‐ESM2‐1 and CNRM‐CM6‐1 simulate a warming in 2100 that remains within the 16th–84th percentiles of warming as inferred by the previous generation of climate models for high emission scenarios (itself emulated by MAGICC6).”
Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6) (2015, unknown): “The MAGICC 6 (Meinshausen et al. 2011b) climate model is used to translate emissions into changes in atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate change.”
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview (2017, methodology): “Finally, the GHG and aerosol emissions from the IAM models were used in the simple climate model MAGICC-6 (Meinshausen et al., 2011a, 2011b) in order to provide insights into possible consequences for concentrations and related climate change.”
Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions (2016, unknown): “8a) and RCP scenarios (Moss et al., 2010; Meinshausen et al., 2011a) used in the 2013 IPCC AR5 report (Fig.”