Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations

By Ricardo Nunes. 2010

125 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This paper estimates the Phillips curve allowing for a simultaneous role of rational and survey expectations. We consider both a reduced form and a structural specification of the Phillips curve. The results suggest that survey expectations can be a statistically significant component of firms' expectations and inflation dynamics. However, rational expectations continue to play a dominant role. Copyright Published 2010. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA..

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d5aa03e4e11280170ed88f218b8c5418647702a0

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In Economics and Econometrics

Citations in the corpus

Fitting observed inflation expectations (2011, unknown): “1 Recent literature has used survey measures of inflation expectations in the limited information estimation of New Keynesian Phillips curves (e.g. Roberts, 1997; Adam and Padula, 2011; Nunes, 2010).”
Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (2014, methodology): “The point estimates generally indicate a dominant role for rational expectations, consistent with the evidence in Nunes (2010), and different from the preferred estimates 50 This is a reasonable assumption since in all cases the first-stage F HAR statistic for x t is over 100.”