Impacts of recent climate change on Wisconsin corn and soybean yield trends

By Christopher J. Kucharik, Shawn P. Serbin. 2008

251 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The US Corn Belt supports agroecosystems that flourish in a temperate climate regime that could see significant changes in the next few decades. Because Wisconsin is situated on the northern, cooler fringes of this region, it may be the beneficiary of a warmer climate that could help support higher corn and soybean yields. Here we show that trends in precipitation and temperature during the growing season from 1976–2006 explained 40% and 35% of county corn and soybean yield trends, respectively. Using county level yield information combined with climate data, we determined that both corn and soybean yield trends were enhanced in counties that experienced a trend towards cooler and wetter conditions during the summer. Our results suggest that for each additional degree ( °C) of future warming during summer months, corn and soybean yields could potentially decrease by 13% and 16%, respectively, whereas if modest increases in total summer precipitation (i.e. 50 mm) were to occur, yields may be boosted by 5–10%, counteracting a portion of the negative effects associated with increased temperature. While northern US Corn Belt regions such as Wisconsin may benefit from a warmer climate regime and management changes that lengthen the crop-growing period in spring and autumn, mid- to high-latitude crop productivity may be challenged by additional summertime warming unless adaptive measures are taken.

Subfields: Agronomy and Crop Science, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Plant Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d22787505f7b14786ac084b9bb99e9d2f30a33cb

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Agronomy and Crop Science

1. Fusuo Zhang
2. J. Powell
3. K. Goulding
4. Stijn Reinhard

In Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

1. Fusuo Zhang
2. J. Powell
3. Stijn Reinhard

In Plant Science

1. Fusuo Zhang
2. J. Powell
3. K. Goulding
4. Stijn Reinhard
5. Long Li

Citations in the corpus

• Unraveling Field Crops Sensitivity to Heat Stress：Mechanisms, Approaches, and Future Prospects (2018, background): “It is reported that during 1976 to 2006 in the US, a future yield reduction of about 16% has been observed in soybean due to a change in patterns of temperature [60].”
• Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields (2016, background): “Kucharik and Serbin (2008) and Lobell et al. (2005) conduct statistical analyses for, respectively, the United States and Mexico, but do not include production variables in their analyzes.”
• Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate (2016, unknown): “Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) and Kucharik and Serbin (2008) find that an increase in precipitation is beneficial for corn and soybean yields whereas McCarl, Villavicencio, and Wu (2008) suggest that increased precipitation can be harmful for wheat yield, beneficial for cotton yield but have no…”
• Factors Affecting Nitrogen Use Efficiency and Grain Yield of Summer Maize on Smallholder Farms in the North China Plain (2018, background): “Earlier planting significantly contributes to increasing yields, and delayed planting has been shown to lead to yield declines [24].”