Predictions for the rates of compact binary coalescences observable by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors

By L. S. Collaboration, Virgo Collaboration J. Abadie, B. Abbott, R. Abbott, M. Abernathy, T. Accadia, F. Acernese, C. Adams, Rana X. Adhikari, P. Ajith and 700 more. 2010

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We present an up-to-date, comprehensive summary of the rates for all types of compact binary coalescence sources detectable by the initial and advanced versions of the ground-based gravitational-wave detectors LIGO and Virgo. Astrophysical estimates for compact-binary coalescence rates depend on a number of assumptions and unknown model parameters and are still uncertain. The most confident among these estimates are the rate predictions for coalescing binary neutron stars which are based on extrapolations from observed binary pulsars in our galaxy. These yield a likely coalescence rate of 100 Myr−1 per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), although the rate could plausibly range from 1 Myr−1 MWEG−1 to 1000 Myr−1 MWEG−1 (Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 601 L179; Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 614 L137 (erratum)). We convert coalescence rates into detection rates based on data from the LIGO S5 and Virgo VSR2 science runs and projected sensitivities for our advanced detectors. Using the detector sensitivities derived from these data, we find a likely detection rate of 0.02 per year for Initial LIGO–Virgo interferometers, with a plausible range between 2 × 10−4 and 0.2 per year. The likely binary neutron–star detection rate for the Advanced LIGO–Virgo network increases to 40 events per year, with a range between 0.4 and 400 per year.

Subfields: Astronomy and Astrophysics, Geophysics, Oceanography

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Citations in the corpus

GWTC-1: A Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog of Compact Binary Mergers Observed by LIGO and Virgo during the First and Second Observing Runs (2018, background): “This limit is now stronger at all masses than the “ high ” rate prediction [216] ( 10 3 Gpc − 3 y − 1 ) for NSBH sources.”
COMPACT BINARY MERGER RATES: COMPARISON WITH LIGO/VIRGO UPPER LIMITS (2015, methodology): “This is conventionally used as the threshold for a GW detector network to be able to identify the GW signal from a merging binary (e.g., Abadie et al. 2010).”
The Emergence of a Lanthanide-rich Kilonova Following the Merger of Two Neutron Stars (2017, background): “…constraints: from radio observations of Galactic double neutron-star binaries (e.g., O’Shaughnessy & Kim 2010), from the rate and beaming-angle estimates of short-GRBs (Fong et al. 2012), and from population synthesis models of binary evolution (Abadie et al. 2010, and references therein).”
On the astrophysical robustness of the neutron star merger r-process (2012, background): “This will increase the volume of accessible astrophysical sources by more than a factor of 1000 reaching a detection horizon of a few hundred Mpc for ns2 mergers and about a Gpc for nsbh mergers (Abadie et al. 2010).”
THE LIGHT CURVE OF THE MACRONOVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG–SHORT BURST GRB 060614 (2015, background): “On the other hand, the BH-NS merger rate is generally expected to be at most ∼ 1/10 time that of the NS-NS merger rate (Abadie et al. 2010).”
Rates of compact object coalescences (2021, background): “It has been more than a decade since Abadie et al. (2010) reviewed the lit-”
Merging binary black holes formed through chemically homogeneous evolution in short-period stellar binaries (2015, background): “Ground-based gravitational-wave detectors (Aasi et al. 2015; Acernese et al. 2015) are capable of observing gravitational waves emitted during mergers of compact-object binaries composed of neutron stars and black holes of stellar origin (Abadie et al. 2010).”
Evidence for a maximum mass cut-off in the neutron star mass distribution and constraints on the equation of state (2017, result): “Combined with canonical values for binary NS merger rates (Abadie et al. 2010; Dominik et al. 2015; Chruslinska et al. 2017), our result strengthens the case for NS mergers as the primary source of short GRBs.”
The birth of black holes: neutron star collapse times, gamma-ray bursts and fast radio bursts (2014, background): “Mergers of binary NSs are prime candidate sources for groundbased gravitational wave (GW) interferometers (Abadie et al. 2010).”
Progenitors of gravitational wave mergers: binary evolution with the stellar grid-based code ComBinE (2018, methodology): “This causes large uncertainties in the predicted rates for GW merger events obtained from binary population synthesis (Abadie et al. 2010).”
WHAT IS THE MOST PROMISING ELECTROMAGNETIC COUNTERPART OF A NEUTRON STAR BINARY MERGER? (2011, methodology): “…if GW detections are rare; in this context, ALIGO/Virgo is predicted to detect NSNS mergers at a rate ranging from ∼ 0.4 to ∼ 400 yr−1, with a “best-bet” rate of ∼ 40 yr−1 (Abadie et al. 2010b; cf. Kopparapu et al. 2008), while the best-bet rate for detection of NS-BH mergers is ∼ 10 yr−1.”
FORMATION OF STABLE MAGNETARS FROM BINARY NEUTRON STAR MERGERS (2013, background): “They are also one of the most powerful sources of gravitational waves (GWs), and advanced interferometric detectors are expected to observe these sources at rates of ∼ 0.4− 400 events per year (Abadie et al. 2010).”
Red or blue? A potential kilonova imprint of the delay until black hole formation following a neutron star merger (2014, background): “1 IN T RO D U C T I O N Mergers of binary neutron stars (NSs) – hereafter ‘neutron star mergers’, or NSMs – are the primary source of gravitational waves (GW) for upcoming ground-based interferometric detectors such as Advanced LIGO and Virgo (Abadie et al. 2010).”
THE DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF STELLAR BLACK HOLES IN GLOBULAR CLUSTERS (2014, result): “This is comparable to the “realistic” merger rate from primordial binaries in galactic fields in Abadie et al. (2010), however other more recent studies have predicted both higher (Dominik et al. 2012) and lower (Mennekens & Vanbeveren 2014) field merger rates.”
IDENTIFYING ELUSIVE ELECTROMAGNETIC COUNTERPARTS TO GRAVITATIONAL WAVE MERGERS: AN END-TO-END SIMULATION (2012, methodology): “In the case of NS-NS binaries, different astrophysical merger rates are derived either by extrapolating the distribution of observed Galactic binary pulsars or from population synthesis results (see e.g., Phinney 1991 and references in Abadie et al. 2010).”