RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions
By C. Schwalm, Spencer Glendon, P. Duffy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020
669 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/cdb6829defd9d3e6a8d4967b4d0d8899893acdb0
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Citations in the corpus
- Acting rapidly to deploy readily available methane mitigation measures by sector can immediately slow global warming (2021, background): “5 is particularly well-suited for emissions out to midcentury and not unreasonable for late century (Schwalm et al 2020).”