Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

By Christopher D. Carroll. 2003

1,208 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/cd700e63e31a7da236e097daa68a072a36503bdf

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Citations in the corpus

The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professionals (2012, positive): “Carroll (2003) finds that the accuracy of inflation expectations is positively related to the amount of media reporting.”
Sticky Information vs. Sticky Prices: A Horse Race in a DSGE Framework (2003, background): “Mankiw and Reis (2006a,b), Mankiw, Reis, and Wolfers (2004), Kahn and Zhu (2006), Caroll (2003) and Dovern, Doekpe, Fritsche, and Slacalek (2006) find empirical support for the sticky information Phillips curve. By contrast, Coibion (2006b) largely rejects its existence.”
Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations (2010, methodology): “The underlying mechanism is consistent with the epidemiological view advanced by Carroll (2003a), and implicitly represents a combination of adaptive learning and sticky information.”
News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2020, positive): “This is noteworthy because it seems to run counter to the received idea of sluggish responses of household expectations and a one-way information ﬂow from professional forecasts to households ( Carroll, 2003 ).”
The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts (2012, neutral): “2 In this respect it should be noticed that the effects of central bank transparency and communication on professional forecasters are likely to be more direct and significant than those regarding the general public, given that the general public receive their information indirectly via the media or”
Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments (2017, background): “…learning rates were significantly lower in Argentina is consistent with the prediction of the rational inattention model, where individuals in a context of higher inflation would tend to be more informed because the cost of inflation misperception is higher (Mankiw et al., 2003; Carroll, 2003).”
INTEREST RATE RULES AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY UNDER HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS (2012, neutral): “, Evans and Honkapohja (2001) and Sargent (1999) for extensive overviews) and thus ignore the possibility of heterogeneity in expectations and its consequences for monetary policy and macroeconomic stability.”
How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence (2018, neutral): “Carroll (2003) studies the transmission of macroeconomic information from professional forecasters to households.”
YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles (2015, neutral): “We use the method of endogenous grid-points, described by Carroll (2011) and Love (2013), to numerically solve the consumer’s problem.”
Internet search behavior as an economic forecasting tool: The case of inflation expectations (2011, neutral): “For decades, economists have relied on a standard set of three survey measures of expected in ﬂ ation, namely the semiannual Livingston Survey, the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the quarterly Michigan Surveys of Consumers.”
Heterogeneous Expectations in Monetary DSGE Models (2013, neutral): “Evans and Honkapohja (2001) and Sargent (1999) for extensive overviews).”