Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis
By Sheng Zhang, Mengyuan Diao, Wenbo Yu, Lei Pei, Zhaofen Lin, Dechang Chen. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2020
653 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Highlights • The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia has caused 355 confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship as of February 16, 2020.• We estimated that the Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of reproductive number (R0) was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship.• If R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced from 1296 (1145–1452) to 874 (780–978) and 573 (512–644) as of February 26, 2020, respectively.
Subfields: Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation, Obstetrics and Gynecology
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/cb72ae671c68f59a16e577274862721545114a27
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In Modeling and Simulation
Citations in the corpus
- Effects of COVID-19 on hotel marketing and management: a perspective article (2020, background): “In addition, aerosol transmission via central air conditioning could be another route of COVID-19 infection (Zhang et al., 2020).”
- An exploratory study of COVID-19 misinformation on Twitter (2020, neutral): “2This, curiously, means that misinformation on the new coronavirus has a higher infectivity than the virus itself [39, 83].”
- Prediction of epidemic trends in COVID-19 with logistic model and machine learning technics (2020, neutral): “[7] Zhang S, Diao M, Yu W, Pei L, Lin Z, Chen D.”
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: A Survey on the State-of-the-Arts (2020, background): “Moreover, the big data analytics from a variety of real-world sources including infected patients can help implement large-scale COVID-19 investigations to develop comprehensive treatment solutions with high reliability [33], [34].”
- JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses (2020, neutral): “2020 (Huang et al. ( ), Remuzzi and Remuzzi (2020), Zhang et al. (2020), Paules et al. (2020)).”
- An Economic Model of the Covid-19 Epidemic: The Importance of Testing and Age-Specific Policies (2020, background): “Zhang et al. (2020) estimates a value of 2.28 and Remuzzi and Remuzzi (2020) reports values between 2.76 and 3.25.”
- The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: What we know (2020, background): “A recent research([31]) on the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak, at a loosen intervention and quarantine condition, showed the R0 was 2.”