Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles
By Gian Maria Campedelli, Alberto Aziani, Serena Favarin. 2020
57 citations recorded by the source corpus.
This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows—from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4\textsuperscript{th} to March 28th 2020—to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed.
Subfields: Modeling and Simulation, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Sociology and Political Science
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c8b2b4ec39e9698894f74df289da3fb5cc97a92b
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In Sociology and Political Science
- Dan Nagin
- Natalia Nollenberger
- Daniel Fernandez-Kranz
- Amelia Haviland
- Alex R. Piquero
- Arjan A. J. Blokland
- Paul Nieuwbeerta
- Greg Pogarsky
Citations in the corpus
- Changes in Crime Rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic (2021, background): “[Campedelli et al., 2020]also found mixed associations with the lockdown in Los Angeles and various crime rates in March 2020.”
- Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19 (2020, unknown): “, 2020), and crime in Los Angeles (Campedelli et al., 2020) by identifying impacts in cities across the US.”
- Intimate partner violence under forced cohabitation and economic stress: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic (2020, background): “Campedelli et al. (2020) for US, Payne et al. (2020) for Australia and Gerell et al. (2020) find no change or even a decrease of domestic violence.”