Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?
By Mohsin S. Khan, A. Schimmelpfennig. Social Science Research Network, 2006
137 citations recorded by the source corpus.
This paper examines the factors that explain and help forecast inflation in Pakistan. A simple inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), an activity variable, the interest and the exchange rates, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Private sector credit growth and broad money growth are also good leading indicators of inflation which can be used to forecast future inflation developments.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c662a20d02ec604be0dc4eaf4974d12bba33b951
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Citations in the corpus
- Modeling rates of inflation in Nigeria: an application of ARMA, ARIMA and GARCH models (2018, background): “[36] Equation [29] can be generalized into a GARCH (p, q) model where the current conditional varience is parameterized to depend upon p lags of the squared error and q lags of the conditional varience as shown below: σt2=φ0+φ1μt−12 +…+φpμt−p2 +λ1σt−12 +…+λqσt−p2 …………………………………………....….”
- Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan (2006, background): “…monetarists argument that monetary factors play dominant role in the long run inflation is valid [Khan and Schimmelpfennig (2006); Bilquees (1988)] in the short run other factor such as food prices also effect inflation [Khan and Schimmelpfennig (2006); Bilquees (1988); Khan and Qasim (1996)].”