Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

By Anthony OʼHagan, C. Buck, A. Daneshkhah, J. Eiser, H. Paul, Garthwaite, D. Jenkinson, Jeremy E. Oakley, Tim Rakow. 2006

1,514 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Management Science and Operations Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c646229a10912a36d38a0602a19c976e1b7dbfb2

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In Management Science and Operations Research

Citations in the corpus

Modeling Using Discrete Event Simulation (2012, background): “[34] O’Hagan A, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A, et al.”
Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis (2012, methodology): “Hence, careful consideration should be given to whether convenient-to-fit, but implausible, distributions (e.g., uniform or triangular) should have any role in PSA.”
Bias modelling in evidence synthesis (2009, methodology): “We chose this approach in preference to the linear opinion pool or the logarithmic opinion pool, where the pooled opinion from multiple assessors represents weakened or strengthened knowledge respectively compared with a single assessor (O’Hagan et al., 2006).”
Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems (2009, background): “Design, screening, and elicitation issues are discussed in, e.g., McKay et al. (1979), Sacks et al. (1989), Koehler and Owen (1996), Craig et al. (1998), and O’Hagan et al. (2006); the general principles of Bayesian experimental design are also relevant (see, e.g., Chaloner and Verdinelli, 1995).”
The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei (2013, positive): “Elicitation provides a framework to represent the uncertainty formally in model parameters from several experts in the relevant field into a probability distribution (O’Hagan et al., 2006).”
Uncertainty in prior elicitations: a nonparametric approach (2007, background): “Alpert & Raiffa (1982) report an experiment in which subjects were asked to provide 98% intervals for various uncertain quantities known only to the experimenter.”
Nonparametric Scoring Rules (2015, background): “The broader field of elicitation now spans several disciplines, and includes the study of user interfaces and the effectiveness of eliciting various probability summaries from experts; for an extensive review see (O’Hagan et al. 2006).”